Comments by Ken Burke
The 2024 Oscar awards for films released in 2023 will be announced on Sunday, March 10, 2024, ABC TV, starting at 4 PM Pacific Daylight Time—so this week Two Guys in the Dark’s Ken Burke will make predictions, offer additional preferences in some cases. You can find lots of speculations and other awarding-groups which may help narrow the films those Motion Picture Academy of Arts and Sciences voters pay the most attention to as they weed through the many options/nominees to consider; however, the most useful indicators of how the Oscar votes may tally likely come from the various industry-related-guilds, with the ones I pay most attention to being the Producers Guild of America for Best Picture (producers get that Oscar), the Directors Guild of America, the Screen Actors Guild, and the Writers Guild of America, simply because of overlap between these industry groups and Academy membership; yet, most Academy members (about 10,500), not just the ones within the Academy’s own corresponding guilds, can vote for finalists in most of the categories so a specific Guild win doesn’t necessarily equate to an Oscar (although they often do), but non-members of those various Academy guilds might be swayed by what their colleagues have chosen, most of which are known by now (results from those cited above are woven into comments about what I arbitrarily call the 8 “major” categories) except the WGA with their choices coming on April 14, 2024.
With awareness of the above considerations, here are my predictions/preferences in all 23 of the competitive categories (I’ve seen no nominees in a few of them so sometimes I’m just guessing based on other predictors). Color-coding key: red = my prediction, green = my preference, red + green = prediction and preference (gold + bold updated here next week = WINNER! [plus updated comments on my prognostications, taking credit or blame for actual results]). In deference to my waning sanity and a desire to not clutter up this posting more than necessary (well, that’s a change!), I’ll skip my usual identification of directors, year of release, date of a Two Guys review, but you can see our Summary of Reviews to get such if you like—you’ll find the current nominees in many of the categories below, although not so much regarding the Animated, Documentary, International features (with just a couple of screenings a week I don’t claim to see everything that's released, even when available), or any of this year’s Shorts—however, please note you do have to scroll through the various star clusters (each one alphabetized) in the Summary to find what you’re looking for so it does take a little time. (But results will be well worth it; where else would you find such brilliance?)
When nominations are determined they come from various branches within the Academy (actors, producers, directors, screenwriters, technical areas) except for Best Picture which everyone can nominate, finalists up to a maximum of 10 for that top award, but when it’s time to vote in the actual categories most everyone can weigh in on everything (except a few may still require verification of viewing) so actors are voting on costume design, set designers are voting on actors, etc., allowing bandwagon effects to often sweep something along in a gush of popularity (with the counter-possibility of a well-liked-entry getting a “compensation” award [sorry, sound experts] in some technical category because it likely won’t succeed in what many [including me] consider the major arenas [though I seem to give more attention to scriptwriting than many others in determining what “major” means]). Further complication for Best Picture: voting’s ranked, so it’s not just what finalist gets the most nods in a 1-round-tally but instead the 2nd, 3rd, etc. choices are factored in possibly resulting in a win for something with more down-ballot-votes than #1 choices. It’s a crapshoot again!
You can also see my Top 10 of 2023, appropriate numbers from that list following titles just below.
March 11, 2024—Now that the prizes have been awarded I'll update on how my predictions held up. I got 16 of 23 for a 70% result (in the realm of how I usually come out) which makes me a bit better than Variety's predictions where they got 15 of 23 for 65%; the only category where I missed in a prediction but “won” with a preference is Makeup and Hairstyling where I predicted Maestro but saw the winner being Poor Things, a film I thought would win only 1 Oscar (for Production Design—it did) but ended up with 4, also taking Costume Design and—in the biggest surprise of the night for many predictors, including me—Actress in a Leading Role (a reasonable but tough choice over Lily Gladstone). My other surprise is Oppenheimer winning only 7 of its 13 categories, not a bad haul at all, although I think many of us expected even more, but it was nice to see the wealth being spread around this year. Yet, along with Maestro, my Top 2 of the year, Killers of the Flower Moon and Past Lives came away with nothing, a shame as I feel all 3 of these deserved something from the Oscar voters, but that's my usual complaint. Onward to the revised nominations lists to see all the winners!
Best Picture
American Fiction [#4] Anatomy of a Fall [#9]
Barbie [#5] The Holdovers [#7]
Killers of the Flower Moon [#1] Maestro [#6]
Poor Things [#8] The Zone of Interest [#10]
Unlike much of the past, for the 2024 Best Picture nominees their 10 finalists match my Top 10 of 2023 (with additional consideration from me for The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial and Asteroid City, but, ultimately, I had to drop them from consideration). Oppenheimer is clearly the front-runner here, with the extra help of winning the PGA award (producers, not golfers), but I still feel its running time is too long, doesn’t need to get into so much detail on the specific conflicts the bomb-maker later had with various political opponents, whereas Killers of the Flower Moon never felt as overdone to me. All of the rest of them certainly have their strong points, although if you what you admire is subtlety in contrast to the overt dynamics of the other contenders I find Past Lives to be even more impactful than the implied horrors of The Zone of Interest (I’ve just seen the latter on streaming, will have a review soon, but the tediousness of posting this one takes up all my spare time/energy for now). The SAG Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture (their version of Best Picture) also went to Oppenheimer; with actors as the largest guild in the Academy I think this one’s a slam-dunk.
Directing
There doesn’t seem to be much doubt about the winner of this category either, especially with the DGA going for Nolan; again, I find all of the contenders to be quite worthy, but as I agree it’s difficult to separate Best Picture from the person in charge of bringing it together, I’ve got to stay consistent with my … Flower Moon preference by advocating for another master of the current cinema, Scorsese. Much has been made about the absence of Greta Gerwig here for Barbie, a justifiable consideration; however, despite the difficulty of not having her noted for such a remarkable achievement, ultimately I can’t replace any of these finalists with Gerwig. I further considered Alexander Payne for The Holdovers and William Friedkin’s final film prior to his death for The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial, yet I’ll accept Oscar's top 5.
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
The Oscars could easily save some time by calling Murphy to the stage for this award while projecting the names of the other nominees on screens while he walks up to accept his statuette. All the fellow-contenders are award-worthy too (they’ve gotten nods from some other organizations; see IMDb to look them up individually [same with other nominees noted below]), but Murphy succeeded in a most-difficult role, earning him the equivalent trophy from SAG; I have no other contenders to offer here beyond the 5 chosen by the Academy so I’ll just say I’m glad I got the opportunity to witness their collective brilliance and Murphy’s especially.
Annette Bening, Nyad
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Those SAG voters gladly gave Margo Robbie her due for Barbie (another source of widespread complaints when she didn’t get an Oscar nod), replacing Hüller as a nominee, otherwise made the same choices as the Academy, then gave their award to Gladstone, matcheing my preference as well, despite agreeing all of these women, plus Robbie, are fantastic in their roles; if anyone but Gladstone’s going to slip in to win this category it would probably be Stone who goes through an amazing transformation in the mad-scientist-flavored Poor Things (another review I’ll soon get to, just streamed it last weekend), but Gladstone seems deservedly-solid to triumph here; maybe she'll be the only winner for Scorsese’s latest powerhouse.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
In that the SAG award for this category went to Downey Jr., it clearly gives him an edge in taking the Oscar as well, although I’m continuing my bent toward Killers … with my preference for De Niro (always a favorite of mine). The SAG nominees closely resemble the Oscar list, providing only a substitution from Poor Things by taking Willem Dafoe instead of Ruffalo. I would tend to agree with that in choosing my Top 5 for this group, although I’d still give serious consideration for Matt Damon in Air over both of them; nevertheless, I doubt Downey Jr. has any true competition here, with a long-awaited Oscar likely coming his way after a couple of previous nominations, including Best Actor in a Leading Role long ago for Chaplin.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
America Ferrera, Barbie
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Here again the SAG winner is the clear favorite to take the Oscar trophy despite serious considerations toward the other outstanding nominees, in my mind especially for Foster’s excellent contribution to Nyad, but given that she’s already won 2 Oscars for Actress in a Leading Role (The Accused, The Silence of the Lambs) along with another nom in that category (Nell) plus a well-deserved-nom in the Supporting category (Taxi Driver), it’s only fitting that someone else should win this award this year. Ferrera has a magnificent scene (sometimes that's all it takes to triumph) detailing the impossible odds women face in our society, but for a sustained presence throughout her film I’m fully in support of Randolph. (A final note: As stated in my review, from The Color Purple I'd prefer Taraji P. Henson over Brooks.)
The Holdovers, David Hemingson
May December, Samy Burch
Past Lives, Celine Song
Due to the extended writers and actors strikes last year, the WGA Awards have an odd situation of not being finalized until about a month after the Oscars in 2024 so we don’t know yet how their winners will compare with those who take home Oscar statuettes; all I can tell you is the difference in nominees with WGA dumping Anatomy … and Maestro, moving Barbie into this category, and adding Air to their finalists. Relative to the Oscar noms I’d be willing to trade May December for Asteroid City, yet I doubt any of this would likely alter what I perceive as the likely Oscar outcome because Anatomy … has a lot of general support (and some fantastic courtroom scenes) but probably won’t win anything else. Still, in that Past Lives got one of my rare 4½ ratings last year (… Flower Moon got the other one), I’d like to see that fine film get something, at least in my private tally.
Writing—Adapted Screenplay
American Fiction, Cord Jefferson
Barbie, Greta Gerwig and
Noah Baumbach
Oppenheimer, Christopher Nolan WINNER!
Poor Things, Tony McNamara
The Zone of Interest, Jonathan Glazer
Oppenheimer’s up for 13 Oscars (in 13 categories it could have competed for, with only Actress in a Leading Role, Original Screenplay, Visual Effects, and Original Song not truly options [along with Animation, Documentary, International features and the 3 Shorts), has a strong possibility of taking at least 8 of them in other categories (with 4 maybe going elsewhere in at attempt to make an effort to spread the wealth around a bit), so I don’t see that it would be at any disadvantage in winning this one as well. (Although if sympathy for left-behinds has any impact here there might be some support for Barbie after the Academy insisted it had to be in this category rather than Original Screenplay; so the adaptation is from the doll’s long-presence in the marketplace? Extremely arguable.) This is the category where the Oscars and WGA differ the most, as the screenwriters organization only matches the Oscars with American Fiction and Oppenheimer, adding Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret., Killers of the Flower Moon, and Nyad, although for me if Barbie has to contend for this Oscar I’d replace it with … Flower Moon (and give that one the prize), but likely would leave the others in place, while considering dropping The Zone of Interest for The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial, with the understanding that if I can’t get … Flower Moon into this group then I’m content with Oppenheimer.
As for the rest of these categories, all I can do is guess where the Shorts, International Features, Animated Features, and Documentary Features are concerned, so it’s not fitting I should offer a preference in any of these competitions. For some of the technical categories I may have a preference, yet I really have no idea how Oscar voters may lean, possibly influenced by members of other professional guilds I haven’t cited, though I can remedy that a bit by saying the American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) chose Oppenheimer for their Theatrical Feature Film award, the American Cinema Editors (ACE) chose Oppenheimer for their Best Dramatic Feature Film along with The Holdovers for their Best Comedy Feature Film, the Cinema Audio Society (CAS) honored Oppenheimer for its achievement in their Motion Pictures – Live Action category for Sound Mixing, and the Motion Pictures Sound Editors also honored Oppenheimer for their Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing for dialogue in feature films. But, some Oscar voters just ride on various bandwagons for their choices based on publicity campaigns, friends’ recommendations, desires to help nominees unlikely to win in more-celebrated-categories—messing up my predictions.
Anyway, I’m now on the record (but I’d be cautious about using me for any office betting pools) with my preferences (in the categories where I can choose some) and 23 predictions (informed or totally speculative) for the upcoming 2024 Oscars. After the awards ceremony this coming weekend, I’ll update this posting with winners and final comments; in the short meantime, please enjoy the show.
Oscar-trivia-buffs, I encourage visiting this site for an enormous dose of that sort of info, current through when I posted, likely to be further updated after the results for 2024 winners become public. Finally, if after the awards event you’re intrigued by any of the winners (or nominees) you haven’t seen yet, consult JustWatch to see what’s available via streaming (or possibly in a nearby theater).
International Feature Film Documentary Feature Film
Io Capitano Bobi Wine: The People’s President
Perfect Days The Eternal Memory
Society of the Snow Four Daughters
The Teachers’ Lounge To Kill a Tiger
The Zone of Interest (I've only seen this one) WINNER! 20 Days in Mariupol WINNER!
Animated Feature Film Animated Short Film
The Boy and the Heron WINNER! Letter to a Pig
Elemental Ninety-Five Senses
Nimona Our Uniform
Robot Dreams Pachyderme
Cinematography Film Editing
El Conde Anatomy of a Fall
Killers of the Flower Moon The Holdovers
Maestro Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer WINNER! Oppenheimer WINNER!
Poor Things Poor Things
Visual Effects Production Design
The Creator Barbie
Godzilla Minus One WINNER! Killers of the Flower Moon
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Napoleon
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One Oppenheimer
Napoleon (I've only seen this one) Poor Things WINNER!
Sound Original Score
The Creator American Fiction
Maestro Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer Oppenheimer WINNER!
The Zone of Interest WINNER! Poor Things
Makeup and Hairstyling Costume Design
Golda Barbie
Maestro Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer Napoleon
Poor Things WINNER! Oppenheimer
Society of the Snow Poor Things WINNER!
Live Action Short Film Documentary Short Film
The After The ABCs of Book Banning
Invincible The Barber of Little Rock
Knight of Fortune Island in Between
Red, White and Blue The Last Repair Shop WINNER!
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar WINNER! Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó
(Music) Original Song
“The Fire Inside” (Flamin’ Hot)
“I’m Just Ken” (Barbie)
“It Never Went Away” (American Symphony)
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” (Killers of the Flower Moon)
“What Was I Made For?” (Barbie) WINNER!
And now, back to our regular programming …
Related Links Which You Might Find Interesting:
(1) Possibilities of historic achievements with the 2024 Oscars; (2) What's new on Netflix in March 2024; (3) What's new on Amazon Prime Video in March 2024: (4) What's new on Hulu in March 2024; (5) What's new on Disney+ in March 2024; (6) What's new on Max in March 2024.
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