Comments by Ken Burke
The 2025 Oscar awards for films released in 2024 will be announced on Sunday, March 2, 2025, ABC TV, starting at 4 PM Pacific Standard Time—so this week Two Guys in the Dark’s Ken Burke will make predictions, offer additional preferences in some cases. You can find lots of speculations and other awarding-groups which may help narrow the films those Motion Picture Academy of Arts and Sciences voters pay the most attention to as they weed through the many options/nominees to consider; however, the most useful indicators of how the Oscar votes may tally likely come from the various industry-related-guilds, with the ones I pay most attention to being the Producers Guild of America for Best Picture (producers get that Oscar), the Directors Guild of America, the Screen Actors Guild, and the Writers Guild of America (bold blue text in this posting brings you to a relevant link), simply because of overlap between these industry groups and Academy membership; yet, most Academy members (9,945 eligible voters), not just the ones within the Academy’s own corresponding guilds, can vote for finalists in most of the categories so a specific Guild win doesn’t necessarily equate to an Oscar (although they often do), but non-members of those various Academy guilds might be swayed by what their colleagues chose, most of which are known by now (results from those 4 Guilds are woven into my comments about the arbitrary 8 “major” categories).
With awareness of the above considerations, here are my predictions/preferences in all 23 of the competitive categories (I’ve seen no nominees in a few, so sometimes I’m guessing based on other predictors). Color-coding key: red = my prediction, green = my preference, red + green = both (gold + bold updated here next week = WINNER! [plus updated comments on my prognostications, taking credit or blame for actual results]). In deference to my waning sanity and a desire to not clutter up this posting more than necessary (well, that’s a change!), I’ll mostly skip my usual identification of directors, year of release, date of a Two Guys review, but you can see our Summary of Reviews to get such if you like—you’ll find the current nominees in many of the categories below, although not so much regarding the Animated, Documentary, International features (with just a couple of screenings a week I don’t claim to see everything released, even when available; also, with my current theatrical avoidance due to COVID/flu concerns some of what I’d like to watch hasn’t come to streaming yet), or any of this year’s Shorts—however, please note you do have to scroll through the various star clusters (each one alphabetized) in the Summary to find what you’re looking for so it does take a little time. (But results will be well worth it; where else would you find such brilliance?)
When nominations are determined they come from various branches within the Academy (actors, producers, directors, screenwriters, technical areas) except for Best Picture which everyone can nominate, with finalists up to a maximum of 10 for that top award, but when it’s time to vote in the actual categories most everyone can weigh in on everything (except a few may still require verification of viewing) so actors are voting on costume design, set designers are voting on actors, etc., allowing bandwagon effects to often sweep something along in a gush of popularity (with the counter-possibility of a well-liked-entry getting a “compensation” award [sorry, sound experts] in some technical category because it likely won’t succeed in what many [including me] consider the major arenas [though I seem to give more attention to scriptwriting than many others in determining what's “major”]). Further complication for Best Picture: voting’s ranked, so it’s not just what finalist gets the most nods in a 1-round-tally but instead the 2nd, 3rd, etc. choices are factored in possibly resulting in a win for something with more down-ballot-votes than #1 choices. It’s a crapshoot again!
You can also see my (Tentative) Top 10 of 2024 if you're curious; I've put appropriate numbers from that list following the titles just below, with, again, some missing rankings for a few Oscar noms, based on what I haven’t seen or where the Academy and I diverge on what are the year’s truly best.
3/2/2025—Now that the awards have been given I can try to brag a bit by noting of the 23 predictions I made below for the various categories in my previous posting I got 15 of them correct—65%, which is about as good as I ever do—a result that beat Variety entertainment magazine’s 13 right for 57%—although I must admit I was hampered by not having seen many of the nominees at that time of posting so I did rely on Variety for many of my choices; yet, I still managed to outsmart them where Best Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay were concerned. As for the actual awards, I’m not happy that (what I consider) the hapless Anora took 5 prizes including Best Picture given that I wouldn’t have even put it in any of the finalists except for Mikey Madison as Best Actress (but even there I still think Demi Moore deserved the honor [so did Variety]). Now that I’ve had the opportunity to stream A Complete Unknown and The Brutalist (reviews to come in a new posting later this week) I’m even more disappointed that the former got nothing, despite 8 noms (but at least Chalamet won Best Actor in a Leading Role from the Screen Actors Guild), but the latter did pick up 3 Oscars with Brody beating out Chalamet for Best Actor. What so many see in Anora I don’t understand, but all I can do is disagree and wish that Conclave had gotten more than just its 1 win.
Best Picture
Anora WINNER! The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown Conclave [#1a]
Dune: Part Two Emilia Pérez [#2]
I’m Still Here Nickel Boys [#1b]
The Substance [#4] Wicked [#9]
Due to no viewing yet, I can’t comment on The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, or I’m Still Here, nor can I understand all the hoopla about Anora (PGA’s Best Picture, DGA’s Best Director, WGA’s Best Original Screenplay), whereas I gave it only 3 of 5 stars, so I’ll just have to admit I’m far away from many industry honchos on this one. On the other hand, my actual favorite (of what I’ve seen so far) is Conclave which got the SGA’s award for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture (their version of Best Film), so maybe I’ve got some hope after all given how many SAG members are also Academy members. If you look at my 2025 Top 10 you’ll find I’ve noted 5 others I found worthy of consideration, although 3 of them might drop off after I see my missing Oscar contenders, but no matter what I wouldn’t put Anora nor Dune: Part Two in my options for Oscar’s Best Picture.
Directing
For my true favorite you'd need to add Edward Berger for Conclave, maybe RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys, Baker out, but no further comment until I see The Brutalist and A Complete Unknown; Audiard’s my pick among these nominees, despite recent disparaging remarks this Frenchman's made about speakers of the Spanish language (No bueno, Señor). Baker here's winning the Cannes Film Festival's Palm d'Or.
Actor in a Leading Role
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Of this group I’ve only seen Conclave, yet I have great admiration for Fiennes’ performance, would probably be fine with him winning, but I have a feeling among Oscar voters he’d at best be #3 behind Brody (lots of momentum in his favor, especially because his film doesn’t seem likely to grab any other major awards) and Chalamet, with the latter now a contender given his SAG win and his film also not likely to get another major trophy. As for The Apprentice (Ali Abbasi), I’m still not sure if I’ll ever see it because as critical as it may be about Donald Trump (a slam dunk if I’ve ever seen such a possibility) I hesitate to commit 2 hours of my life to watch something about this conceited jerk, even if it is somewhat fiction and the real guy hates it. I see enough ofhim in the nightly news as is.
Actress in a Leading Role
Here, again, we may find Moore’s SGA win might propel her to an Oscar (yes, I realize these SGA winners weren’t announced until February 23, 2025 after [I assume] Oscar voting was done, but if a majority of the SAG voters knew they were going with Moore they most likely would have cast their Oscar ballots for her as well); however, if Anora holds up overall the way it’s predicted to, Madison’s likely got the trophy (she’s #3 of my best 5, Moore at #5); however, my actual #1 is Sarah Paulson in Hold Your Breath (Karrie Crouse, Will Joines), plus possibly Jessica Chastain in Memory (Michel Franco) instead of Torres. Gascón (my #2) becomes my default favorite here, despite all of the controversy about her and Emilia Pérez in general because I’m trying to focus on what I saw on screen rather than the human flaws of major contributors to this film (although I’ll bet these public problems will prevent what at an earlier time looked like a possible powerful sweep for this picture).
Actor in a Supporting Role
Yura Borisov, Anora
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Finally, I agree with the majority of predictions (his SAG award in this category further helps); however, my comments must be brief because Anora and A Real Pain are all I’ve seen so far in this group. I have nothing to offer for Anora, was quite impressed with Culkin (as are many others), so that’s all I can say at this point.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Ariana Grande, Wicked
This may be the singular category to feature a win for Emilia Pérez (I was almost right about that; see Original Song), given Saldaña’s praise in this role (and no complaints about her), along with her SAG win. I’m fine with this group of nominees (but by now you know the notable 2 I haven’t seen) except for Rossellini, a great actor with a marvelous career although in Conclave—despite how much I enjoy the film overall—I just don’t see that she delivered anything award-nomination-worthy; while I’d still put Saldaña as my #1, I’d replace Rossellini with Danielle Deadwyler from The Piano Lesson (Malcolm Washington), a film on my Top 10 list and another SAG nominee in this category.
Please indulge me for a moment here for a side thought. One last marginal thing to say about the above category also concerns dropping Oscar nominees due to my personal preferences, based on a recent opportunity to watch Pedro Almodóvar’s marvelous The Room Next Door, starring Tilda Swinton and Julianne Moore (You'll find a short review way down below all of this Oscar stuff). I’d have to spend even more time mulling over whom I might bump to give these 2 fabulous actors their potential honor in my thoughts about Oscar contenders, but it could get us into that perennial argument about what constitutes Leading and Supporting roles, where in this case would likely find Swinton as Lead, Moore as Supporting, even though they have roughly equal screen time and equal impact on this narrative (still, Swinton does play 2 roles, as her older self and her adult daughter). Sometimes this situation is properly recognized as with both Dustin Hoffman and Jon Voight being nominated for Oscar’s Best Actor in Midnight Cowboy (John Schlesinger, 1969 [only X-rated film to win Best Picture, although both actors lost to John Wayne for True Grit {Henry Hathaway, 1969}]) and both Susan Sarandon and Geena Davis were nominated for Best Actress in Thelma and Louise (Ridley Scott, 1991), but they lost to Jodie Foster for The Silence of the Lambs (Jonathon Demme), which brings up the other problem when you nominate more than 1 person in a film for a given category as their competing votes might cancel each other out, letting someone else snag the prize.
Writing—Original Screenplay
Anora, Sean Baker WINNER!
A Real Pain, Jesse Eisenberg
The Substance, Coralie Fargeat
Once again, I’m somewhat hampered in my decisions by not yet seeing a couple of these Oscar nominees along with having no interest in supporting Anora for much of anything (except for Madison's quite-impressive acting), so I’ll take The Substance on the list I do have, although I’d easily trade off Anora for my actual #1, Memory, as I acknowledge Anora’s likely to win here, but at least The Substance is #2 on my private list, even as Anora’s won this award from the WGA (Yikes!).
Writing—Adapted Screenplay
Here's another one of those rare occasions where the Academy and I agree on the nom/likely winner, with a further agreement between me and many Oscar predictors. Also, Nickel Boys is #2 on my private list, so more synchronicity abounds, although I’m curious to see how this all shakes out whenever I get to see A Complete Unknown and Sing Sing, but at least here’s a situation where I may be completely pleased by the Oscar winner (assuming the growing backlash against Emilia Pérez holds up). My only other comment about this category is I’ve never been sure whether voters are fully aware of the original work, respond to how well it’s translated into a screenplay, or, are they simply impressed by a script which just happens to be an adaptation. I think that I shall never know!
As for the rest of these categories, all I can do is guess where the Shorts, International Features, Animated Features, and Documentary Features are concerned, so it’s not fitting I should offer a preference in any of these competitions. For some of the technical categories I may have a preference, yet I really have no idea how Oscar voters may lean, possibly influenced by members of other professional guilds I haven’t cited, though I can remedy that a bit by saying the American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) chose Maria for their Theatrical Feature Film award, the American Cinema Editors (ACE) awards won’t be given until March 14, 2025 due to the L.A. fires, and the Cinema Audio Society (CAS) honored A Complete Unknown for its achievement in their Motion Pictures – Live Action category for Sound Mixing, But, some Oscar voters just ride on various bandwagons for their choices based on publicity campaigns, friends’ recommendations, desires to help nominees unlikely to win in more-celebrated-categories—messing up my predictions.
Anyway, I’m now on the record (but I’d be cautious about using me for any office betting pools) with my preferences (in the categories where I can choose some) and 23 predictions (informed or totally speculative) for the upcoming 2025 Oscars. After the awards ceremony this coming weekend, I’ll update this posting with winners and final comments; in the short meantime, please enjoy the show.
Oscar-trivia-buffs, I encourage visiting this site for an enormous dose of that sort of info, current through when I posted, likely to be further updated after the results for 2025 winners become public. Finally, if after the awards event you’re intrigued by any of the winners (or nominees) you haven’t seen yet, consult JustWatch to see what’s available via streaming (or possibly in a nearby theater).
International Feature Film Documentary Feature Film
Emilia Pérez (France) Black Box Diaries
Flow (Latvia) No Other Land WINNER!
The Girl with the Needle (Denmark) Porcelain War
I’m Still Here (Brazil) WINNER! Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany) Sugarcane
Animated Feature Film Animated Short Film
Flow WINNER! Beautiful Men
Inside Out 2 In the Shadow of Cypress WINNER!
Memoir of a Snail Magic Candles
Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl Wander to Wonder
The Wild Robot Yuck!
Cinematography Film Editing
The Brutalist WINNER! Anora WINNER!
Dune: Part Two The Brutalist
Emilia Pérez Conclave
Maria Emilia Pérez
Nosferatu Wicked
Visual Effects Production Design
Better Man Conclave
Dune: Part Two WINNER! Dune: Part Two
Wicked Wicked WINNER!
Sound Original Score
Dune: Part Two WINNER! Conclave
Wicked Wicked
The Wild Robot The Wild Robot
Makeup and Hairstyling Costume Design
A Different Man A Complete Unknown
Emilia Pérez Conclave
Nosferatu Gladiator II
The Substance WINNER! Nosferatu
Wicked Wicked WINNER!
Live Action Short Film Documentary Short Film
I’m Not a Robot WINNER! I Am Ready, Warden
A Lien Instruments of a Beating Heart
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent The Only Girl in the Orchestra WINNER!
(Music) Original Song
"Never Too Late” (Elton John: Never Too Late)
“El Mal” (Emilia Pérez) WINNER!
“Mi Camino” (Emilia Pérez)
“The Journey” (The Six Triple Eight)
“Like a Bird” (Sing Sing)
And now, back to our regular programming …
SHORT TAKES
Well, I do have just enough energy left today to make some brief comments about this first film in English by the renowned Spanish director who’s been gracing the cinema for decades with his individualistic takes on human situations, often offering marvelous roles to the female actors he’s worked with. Here, a couple of highly-established thespians, Tilda Swinton and Julianne Moore, provide powerful screen presences as former war correspondent Martha (Swinton) is dying of cancer so she calls on her old novelist friend Ingrid (Moore) to retreat into the New York countryside to a rented house where Martha will decide on the day to take the euthanasia pills she’s bought on the Dark Web. Years ago Martha was in love with Fred (Alex Høgh Andersen), but he was drafted to Vietnam, returned with PTSD, impregnated her, then left to eventually marry someone else before dying in a fire where he hallucinated someone was trapped inside. Martha raised the child, Michelle (played as an adult also by Swinton), as a single mother, yet they were never close. I’m not going into Spoiler territory this time, but if you want fuller plot details, you can visit this site, yet I heartedly encourage you to see the film first before learning how it all turns out (you’ll also get some scenes with John Turturro as Damian, a former lover of both of the old friends); you may find it in a few domestic (US.-Canada) theaters (opened on December 20, 2024; domestic gross so far of $2.4 million, global gross $16.4 million), but you’re much more likely to find it on streaming where you can rent it for $19.99 from either Amazon Prime Video or Apple TV+. Here's the trailer to give you a sense of the story and encouragement from the CCAL, with the Rotten Tomatoes positive reviews at 81%, the Metacritic average score at 70%. That’s all I’ve got the energy to say about it right now (sorry, no Musical Metaphor this time; nothing’s coming to me), but after I’ve gotten the chances to see The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, I’m Still Here, and Sing Sing, I’ll probably revise my 2024 Top 10 list with The Room … likely on it, just as I’ll have to rethink my choices for the past year’s Female Actor in a Leading Role (maybe Female Actor in a Supporting Role too), as difficult as it would be to push any of my current choices off the list while acknowledging the probable tough time the current Oscar voters had in keeping both Swinton and Moore off their finalists’ choices also.
Related Links Which You Might Find Interesting:
Options for consideration: (1) An insider look at some Oscar voting; (2) Despite controversies Karla Sofía Gascón will attend the Oscar ceremony; (3) SAG awards might cause upsets in the Oscar acting races; along with (4) IMDb's 5 Things to Watch during the week of 2/24/2025.
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Somehow I suspect the biggest attraction for this year's Oscars show may be Conan O'Brien.
ReplyDeleteBetter him than "Anora."
ReplyDelete