Comments (and a review) by Ken Burke
The 2023 Oscar awards, for films released in 2022, will be announced on Sunday, March 12, 2023, ABC TV, starting at 5 PM Pacific zone—so it’s time for Two Guys in the Dark (well, just the one guy again—me, Ken Burke; Pat Craig’s still far enough in the dark that I can’t find him) to make some predictions, offer additional preferences in some cases. You can find lots of speculations, including relatively-well-informed ones such as these from Variety, but I think while acknowledgements from various critics’ groups—including the Golden Globes—may help narrow the films those Motion Picture Academy of Arts and Sciences voters pay the most attention to as they weed through the many options/nominees to consider, the most useful indicators of how the Oscar votes may tally likely come from the various guilds, with the ones I pay most attention to being the Producers Guild of America for Best Picture (producers get that Oscars), the Directors Guild of America, the Screen Actors Guild, and the Writers Guild of America, simply because of membership-overlap between these industry groups and Academy membership; yet, most Academy members (almost 10,000), not just the ones within the Academy's own guilds, can vote for finalists in most of the categories so a specific Guild win doesn’t necessarily equate to an Oscar (although they often do) but non-members of those various Academy Guilds might be swayed by what their colleagues have chosen, all of which are known by now (results from the ones cited above will be woven into comments about what I arbitrarily consider the 8 “major" categories). After all of this 2022 stuff, I'll probe into 2023 with a quick (I mean it!) review of A Little White Lie starring Michael Shannon and Kate Hudson, a charming comedy about a literary-genius-misunderstanding, so don't leave too early.
With recognition of the above considerations, here are my predictions and preferences in all 23 of the competitive categories (I’ve seen none of the nominees in a few of them so I’m just making some wild guesses). Color-coding key: red = my prediction, green = my preference of the nominees, red + green = prediction and preference (gold + bold updated here next week = WINNER! [plus update comments on my prognostications, taking credit or blame for the actual results]). In deference to my waning sanity and a desire to not clutter up this posting more than necessary (well, that's a change!), I’ll skip my usual identification of directors, year of release, and date of a Two Guys review after most of the titles listed below (except for review dates for Best Picture), but you can see our Summary of Reviews to get that info if you like (assuming we’ve posted a review for a specific title anytime after our launch in late 2011)—you’ll find the current nominees there in many of the categories below, although not so much regarding Animated, Documentary, and International features (with a couple of screenings a week I don’t claim to see everything that’s released, even when available) or any of this year’s Shorts—however, please note you do have to scroll through the various star clusters (each one alphabetized) in the Summary to find what you’re looking for so it does take a little time. (But results will certainly be well worth it; where else would you be able to read such untamed brilliance?)
One more thing, just for clarity: When the nominations are determined they come from the various branches within the Academy (actors, directors, screenwriters, various technical areas) except for Best Picture which everyone can nominate, with some determination as to how many finalists there’ll be up to a maximum of 10 for that top award, but when it’s time to vote in the actual categories most everyone can weigh in on everything (except a few may still require verification of viewing) so actors are voting on sound, set designers are voting on actors, etc., allowing bandwagon effects to often sweep something along in a gush of general popularity (with the counter-possibility of some well-liked-entries getting a “compensation” award [sorry, sound experts] in some technical category because it likely won’t succeed in what many [including me] consider the major arenas [although I seem to give more attention to scriptwriting than many others in determining what “major” means in this context]). Further complication for Best Picture: voting’s ranked, so it’s not just what finalist gets the most votes in a 1-round-tally but instead the 2nd, 3rd, etc. choices are factored in possibly resulting in a win for something with more down-ballot-votes than #1 choices. It’s a crapshoot again!
MARCH 13, 2023—Now that the Oscars are awarded, here’s an update on my predictions: Of the 23 competitive categories in play I got 18 of them correctly for a 78% success rate, which tops Variety’s 16 right of 23 for 70% success (although I must commend them for steering me in the right direction in the 6 categories below where I could make no preference because I’d seen only a few or none of the contenders). Of the 17 where I did note a preference the Academy rewarded me by choosing 10 of those (all within my predictions, though, so they didn’t join me on any of my outliers). As you can read in the details below, as much as admire Everything … (it’s #3 on my 2022 Top 10 list) it’s not my choice for Best Picture (nor Director or Supporting Actress, but I’m fine with its other 4 trophies), an attitude shared at length by Justin Chang of the Los Angeles Times. Overall, however, I’m mostly satisfied with how it all came out, except wishing Tár and Elvis had won something, but that just wasn’t to be last night. Finally, while I find “Naatu Naatu” to be a satisfactory winner of Best Original Song, now that I’ve heard the other contenders again during the broadcast I must admit it relies on choreography more than lyrics, with “Hold My Hand” stronger just as a song; yet I can see where this isn’t the Grammys where Best Song stands alone but for the Oscars a crucial consideration is how the song adds to the film as a whole, thus I’m OK with “Naatu Naatu” after all. So, take a look again below if you would like to see the actual outcomes vs. my inclinations.
Elvis (review posted on July 7, 2022) [#5]
Everything Everywhere at Once (review posted on April 14, 2022) [#3] WINNER!
The Fabelmans (review posted on January 12, 2023)
Tár (review posted on December 1, 2022) [#2]
Top Gun: Maverick (review posted on June 9, 2022)
Triangle of Sadness (review posted on February 2, 2023)
Women Talking (review posted on March 2, 2023)
There’s variance between what works best for me in regard to what works best for these Academy voters; if you read my previous posting you know that #1 on my Top 10 of 2022 releases is the magnificent documentary Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, A Journey, A Song (Dayna Goldfine, Dan Geller); however, it’s not only missing from Oscar’s 10 Best Picture contenders but also didn’t make the cut for Best Documentary Feature (I’ve noted my other Top 10 choices in partial-purple in the list above just for clarity), so I’ll go with my #2, Tár, although everyone in the world will be shocked if Everything Everywhere … doesn’t get this prize. I too think it’s an amazing example of cinematic artistry, but I found Tár, while certainly less flamboyant, to be a deeper viewing/after-the-fact-contemplative experience overall. As you can see above only 4 of my Top 10 made the Academy’s finalists in this category so I would have eliminated the rest to be replaced by my other choices: Hallelujah … [#1], The Whale [#4], Till [#7], Aftersun [#8], Thirteen Lives [#9], Nope [#10]. Given all the love already shown to Everything Everywhere All at Once—among other trophies, the Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures from the PGA (producers, not golfers) and Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture from SAG. With so many members of those groups also Academy voters, I think this award will be close to a slam-dunk, although I see it getting gold in other categories as well so I’m still hoping Tár might pull a most-unexpected-upset. Any of the others here with a win would be more than unexpected, it would be miraculous, but with that ranked voting system now used upsets are more possible than ever. Time is short before the Oscar winners are announced, but you might find a few of the films noted above in theaters in your area, with notably-more-options available for streaming by consulting JustWatch.
Directing
Todd Field, Tár
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert,
Everything Everywhere All at
Once WINNER!
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of
Inisherin
Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of
Sadness
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Given all the chatter about Kwan and Scheinert taking the statuette in this category—along with their win already from the DGA, recognizing their successful overcoming of the grand difficulties they set for themselves with this extraordinarily-complex-narrative—I don’t see how any of the other nominees stand a chance here, but given my support of Tár, I have to go with Field. As with the Best Picture probabilities I don’t see any of these others as having much of a chance. However, if I were in charge here I’d have dropped McDonagh and Östlund in favor of Baz Luhrmann (Elvis) and Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), although neither of them would have any better dream of winning than the nominees I’ve already discounted. For balance, the DGA is almost in agreement with the Academy's picks here except for dropping Östlund for Joseph Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick).
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale WINNER!
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
Much as I absolutely admire what Butler’s accomplished in the difficult challenge of successfully portraying a true icon of the 20th-century, I just can’t choose anyone else but Frasier, given how “enormously” powerful he is in his role. Based on the gossip I’ve read it’s a bit of a tossup in this category, but I do think Frasier's win with the SAG voters is a strong indication of who will be at the podium on awards night. SAG generally agrees with these nominees, having traded out only Mescal for Adam Sandler (Hustle). While I’m solid with Frasier and Butler (much as I also appreciated Farrell and Mescal; still haven’t seen Living so no comments from me on Nighy), I’d dump the other 3 in favor of John Cho (Don’t Make Me Go), Sterling K. Brown (Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.), and Diego Calva (Babylon), yet I'll say none of them would overtake these front-runners.
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere
All at Once WINNER!
Here’s another one of those situations where you can make substitutions—SAG does by dropping Riseborough and Williams in favor of the work of Viola Davis (The Woman King) and Danielle Deadwyler (Till) [there were complaints that top-name-actors campaigned for Riseborough to make the Oscar finalists, thereby bumping Davis or Deadwyler, although I'm more concerned that Williams got in], while I’d cut Williams to take Deadwyler instead (not easy for me not to include Davis, yet I can’t fully endorse dropping anyone else)—but any trade-outs hardly matter because this is a close competition between Blanchett and Yeoh, with the latter likely in the lead by winning the SAG award plus Blanchett already has 2 Oscars (for Best Actress in Blue Jasmine [2013], Best Supporting Actress in The Aviator [2004]) plus 5 other Oscar noms while this is the first time at the Oscars for Yeoh despite her equally-long-career. This one’s easier for me to predict than to prefer, but after long consideration I’ll still go with Blanchett as my favorite, though Yeoh as the likely winner.
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of
Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of
Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere
All at Once WINNER!
This is another one of those categories where everyone except Quan needs to work on their supportive smiles while the cameras are on them applauding as Quan goes up to accept the award. SAG’s already affirmed him while making only 1 substitution in the group of nominees, trading out Hirsch for his … Fabelmans castmate, Paul Dano; I’d go a bit farther than that, eliminating Hirsch and Keoghan (a mystery to me how either of them earned these nominations given the options available from throughout the year), replacing them with Daryl McCormack (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande) and (some—or more—will chastise me for this) Tom Hanks (Elvis). Again, no matter who the bench-players may be here, Quan’s the MVP in this category, adding another trophy for what’s likely to be a grand pile of success for his film.
Hong Chau, The Whale
Here, again, I’m surprised that Chau and Condon made it to the list of Oscar finalists, whereas I’d have dropped them, instead added Thuso Mbedu (The Woman King) and Mia Isaac (Don’t Make Me Go). SAG took Isaac also over Hsu, but then delivered a bit of a surprise—relative to prior industry buzz—by choosing Curtis over Bassett for their award in this category. In addition to this year, Bassett’s also been Oscar-nominated for Best Actress in What’s Love Got to Do with It (1993) while this is the first Oscar nom for Curtis. Given that Bassett and Brian Tyree Henry are the only Black actor nominees this year, some consideration by voters might help Bassett (Henry’s got no chance) given there will be plenty of celebrating anyway by the Everything Everywhere … group when the night’s over, with Asians likely to take 2 of the other 3 acting trophies, so we’ll just have to see how it plays out; however, I'll go with Bassett's fierce screen command for prediction as well as preference.
Writing—Adapted Screenplay
Living, Kazuo Ishiguro
Women Talking, Sarah Polley WINNER!
The WGA, along with me, supports Women Talking, giving it their Adapted Screenplay award while they also took She Said and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever as nominees rather than All Quiet … and Living. Again, I can say nothing about Living, not having seen it but I’d take a chance and drop it anyway in favor of She Said. Admittedly, I found Women Talking to be a bit more cerebral than impactful, yet, overall, it’s a quite compelling script, about injured women confronting a dire situation.
Writing—Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin, Martin
For this category the WGA did not nominate The Banshees … nor Triangle …, but instead went with The Menu and Nope, then chose Everything … for their award; I would drop The Banshees …, The Fabelmans, and (especially) Triangle …, adding instead the most-interesting Aftersun, Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul., and Nope, yet I prefer and predict Everything … as it successfully delivers on a most audacious, intricate, and, yes, original concept. It's hard for me to move past writers as talented as Spielberg and Kushner, but sometimes the toughest choices must be made, even by me.
As for the rest of these categories, I’m not able to do anything but guess where the Shorts are concerned, I’ve only seen 1 of the nominees in International Feature Film and Documentary Feature (where the glorious Hallelujah … didn’t even earn a nomination), and just 2 in Animated Feature, so it’s not fitting I should offer a preference in any of these groups (although I do truly admire All Quiet on the Western Front, All That Breathes, and Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio in their respective competitions [enjoyed Turning Red as an Animated Feature also]). For some of the technical categories I may have a preference but I have no idea how the Oscar voters may lean, possibly influenced by members of other professional Guilds I haven’t cited, though I can remedy that a bit by saying the American Society of Cinematographers (ASC; you’ll have to scroll down in their link a bit to get to their Theatrical Feature Film) chose Elvis for their award, the American Cinema Editors (ACE) chose Top Gun: Maverick for their Best Dramatic Feature Film along with Everything Everywhere All at Once for their Best Comedy Feature Film (like the Producers, they haven't put their winners on their official websites [yet?]), and the Cinema Audio Society (CAS) also honored Top Gun: Maverick for its achievement in their Motion Pictures – Live Action category. But, some voters just ride on various bandwagons based on publicity campaigns, friends’ recommendations, desires to help nominees unlikely to win in more-celebrated-categories—messing up my predictions.
Anyway, I’m now on the record (but I'd be cautious about using me for any office betting pools) with my preferences (in the categories where I can choose some) and 23 predictions (informed or totally speculative) for the upcoming 2023 Oscars. After the awards ceremony this coming weekend, I’ll update this posting with winners and final comments; in the short meantime, please enjoy the show.*
*Oscar-trivia-buffs, I encourage visiting this site for an enormous dose of that sort of info, current through 2022 awards, & likely to be further updated after the results for 2023 winners become public.
International Feature Film Documentary Feature
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) WINNER! All That Breathes
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Close (Belgium) Fire of Love
EO (Poland) A House Made of Splinters
The Quiet Girl (Ireland) Navalny WINNER!
Animated Feature Film Animated Short Film
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio WINNER! The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
WINNER!
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On The Flying Sailor’
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Ice Merchants”
The Sea Beast My Year of Dicks”
Turning Red An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I
Think I Believe It
Cinematography Film Editing
All Quiet on the Western Front WINNER! The Banshees of Inisherin
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths Elvis
Elvis Everything Everywhere All at Once WINNER!
Empire of Light Tár
Tár Top Gun: Maverick
Visual Effects Production Design
All Quiet on the Western Front All Quiet on the Western Front WINNER!
Avatar: The Way of Water WINNER! Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick The Fablemans
Sound Music (Original Score)
All Quiet on the Western Front All Quiet on the Western Front WINNER!
Avatar: The Way of Water Babylon
The Batman The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis Everything Everywhere All at Once
Top Gun: Maverick WINNER! The Fabelmans
Makeup and Hair Styling Costume Design
All Quiet on the Western Front Babylon
The Batman Black Panther: Wakanda Forever WINNER!
Black Panther: Wankanda Forever Elvis
Elvis Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Whale WINNER! Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Live Action Short Film Documentary Short Film
An Irish Goodbye WINNER! The Elephant Whisperers WINNER!
Ivalu Haulout
Le Pupille How Do You Measure a Year
Night Ride The Martha Mitchell Effect
The Red Suitcase Stranger at the Gate
Music (Original Song)
“Applause” (Tell It Like a Woman)
“Hold My Hand” (Top Gun: Maverick)
“Lift Me Up” (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
“Naatu Naatu” (RRR) WINNER!
“This Is a Life” (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
And now, back to our regular programming …
SHORT TAKES (spoilers appear here)
I invite you to join me on a regular basis to see how my responses to current cinematic offerings compare to the critical establishment, which I’ll refer to as either the CCAL (Collective Critics at Large) if they’re supportive or the OCCU (Often Cranky Critics Universe) when they go negative. However, due to COVID concerns I’m mostly addressing streaming options with limited visits to theaters even though I’ll have to sacrifice seeing such wonders as Cocaine Bear (Elizabeth, Banks).
A university English dept. aspires to pump life back into its near-comatose annual Literary Festival by inviting a famous-yet-reclusive author, and, to their shock, he agrees; the problem is the letter was sent to an apartment maintenance man with the same name, so he accepts, just hoping for some useful swag, but then has to keep faking his way through comic situations as his ruse must continue.
Here’s the trailer:
(Use the full screen button in the image’s lower right to enlarge it; activate
that same button or use the “esc” keyboard key to return to normal size.)
If you can abide plot spoilers read on, but this blog’s intended for those who’ve seen the film or want to save some $ (as well as recognizing those readers like me who just aren’t that tech-savvy). To help any of you who want to learn more details yet avoid these all-important plot-reveals I’ll identify any give-away sentences/sentence-clusters with colors plus arrows:
⇒The first and last words will be noted with arrows and red.⇐ OK, now continue on if you prefer.
In A Little White Lie English prof. Simone Cleary (Kate Hudson) is trying to revive interest in her department’s annual Literary Festival at (fictional) Acheron U. by inviting author C.R. Shriver (Michael Shannon)—famous for his one novel, Goat Time, but totally reclusive since then (much like the reality of J.D. Salinger after Catcher in the Rye [1951] and fictional-equivalent Terence Mann [James Earl Jones] in Field of Dreams [Phil Alden Robinson, 1989]); much to her shock, he accepts, but only we know the offer was made to a guy with the same name, an apartment-house-handyman who agrees to his hoax in hopes of getting something materially out of it. Presented as a satire of overachieving writers (many grad students at Acheron hoping Shriver will read their manuscripts), over-indulgent/wealthy patrons of the arts, academics who take themselves too seriously (countered by Simone’s laid-back-colleague T. Wasserman [Don Johnson]), and literature given overextended-context by desperate-wannabe-believers (my wife, Nina, makes a great observation this story has aspects of the fabulous Being There [Hal Ashby, 1979]), with this Shriver showing some literary potential, then sparking up a romance with Simone. ⇒A guy claiming to be the real Shriver (Zach Braff) shows up as a challenge, but by the end either the fake Shriver is actually the real guy coming back into his authorial confidence or has just taken on the role so genuinely he’s now the public face of this reclusive genius, even more so than the other Shriver, who may or may not also be a fake.⇐
The OCCU collectively would give you no reason to see this movie, with Rotten Tomatoes positive reviews at a measly 37% while the Metacritic average score is higher, yet still nothing to brag about, at 42%. Nevertheless, my local San Francisco Chronicle critic, Mick LaSalle, whom I’ll be supportive of for a change rather than disagreeing with him in mock disgust, led me to this movie for which I’m appreciative: “The cliche would be to say that it’s better than the sum of its parts. But it may be something else: that all its parts — the performances, the characters, the script — are all just a little better than they had to be.” However, if you want to know what all the rejection’s about, turn to Jeannette Catsoulis of The New York Times: “[It] pokes feebly at impostor syndrome and writerly insecurity. Adapting Chris Belden’s 2013 novel, 'Shriver,' Maren settles for a muddled mystery and a limp love connection.” Complaints not withstanding, I found it very enjoyable to watch, think you would too if you’re interested in streaming it on Apple TV+ for a $6.99 rental, if for no other reason than the always-pleasure of seeing whatever Michael Shannon’s doing (Hudson and Johnson contribute well also). I intend to keep this short so I’ll bow out with my usual-concluding-Musical Metaphor, this time Fleetwood Mac’s “Little Lies” (on their 1987 Tango in the Night album) at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCGD9dT12C0 because this song is about a woman who’s willing to put up with less than she’d originally hoped for—"I'll settle for one day / To believe in you/ Tell me, tell me lies"—just as Simone suddenly finds less, then ultimately more in Shannon’s Shriver.
Related Links Which You Might Find Interesting:
We encourage you to visit the Summary of Two Guys Reviews for our past posts* (scroll to the bottom of this Summary page to see additional info about your wacky critic, Ken Burke, along with contact info and a great retrospective song list). Overall notations for this blog—including Internet formatting craziness beyond our control—may be found at our Two Guys in the Dark homepage. If you’d like to Like us on Facebook (yes?) please visit our Facebook page. We appreciate your support whenever and however you can offer it unto us! Please also note that to Post a Comment below about our reviews you need to have either a Google account (which you can easily get at https://accounts.google.com/NewAccount if you need to sign up) or other sign-in identification from the pull-down menu below before you preview or post. You can also leave comments at our Facebook page, although you may have to somehow register with us at that site in order to do it (most FB procedures are still a perplexing mystery to us old farts).
*Please ignore previous warnings about a “dead link” to our Summary page because the problem’s been manually fixed so that all postings since July 11, 2013 now have the proper functioning link.
If you’d rather contact Ken directly rather than leaving a comment here at the blog please
use my email address of kenburke409@gmail.com—type it directly if the link doesn’t work.
OUR POSTINGS PROBABLY LOOK BEST ON THE MOST CURRENT VERSIONS OF MAC OS AND THE SAFARI WEB BROWSER (although Google Chrome usually is decent also); OTHERWISE, BE FOREWARNED THE LAYOUT MAY SEEM MESSY AT TIMES.
Finally, for the data-oriented among you, Google stats say over the past month the total unique hits at this site were 2,740 (as always, we thank all of you for ongoing support with hopes you’ll continue to be regular readers, especially because recently the numbers really fell off, as last month’s total approached nearly 17,000 [wow!]); below is a snapshot of where those responses have come from within the previous week (with appreciation for the unspecified “Others” also visiting Two Guys’ site):
No comments:
Post a Comment